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When polls diverge from policy

Climate opinion, carbon prices and who pays — a facts-first draft for editorial review.

22 October 2026 · Researched draft · ~8 min read

When polls diverge from policy: climate opinion, carbon prices and who pays

Across high-income countries, fewer people now call climate a “major threat” than in 2022, while carbon pricing instruments collect more than US$100 billion a year. The gap between public mood, scientific institutions and fiscal machinery is worth examining carefully.

Public opinion Carbon pricing Fiscal policy

Climate debate is often framed as a contest between “belief” and “denial.” The survey and fiscal data of 2025–2026 paint a more awkward picture: concern remains widespread in many countries, trust in science is under pressure globally, carbon prices and revenues have grown, and in several high-income democracies the share of adults who treat climate as a major threat has fallen since 2022.

1. What recent surveys actually report

Global threat perception

Pew Research Center’s 2025 cross-national work found a median of 67% of adults across 25 nations saying global climate change is a major threat to their country. In many high-income countries surveyed in both 2022 and 2025, that share decreased — notably in Greece, Italy and the Netherlands.

U.S. pessimism about “doing enough” (2026)

A Pew survey of 3,524 U.S. adults (March 2026) found about six in ten Americans saying countries will not do enough to avoid the worst effects of climate change. Among Democrats that share rose from 51% in 2022 to 69% in 2026.

67%
Median: climate is a major threat (Pew, 25 nations, 2025)
~60%
U.S.: countries will not do enough (Pew, 2026)
72%
Global: some or a lot of trust in science (Wellcome 2026)
$107bn+
2025 revenues from ETSs & carbon taxes (World Bank)

Trust in science

Wellcome Global Monitor 2026 found 72% reporting some or a lot of trust in science — down from 80% in 2020. The share who trust science “a lot” fell in 14 regions between 2020 and 2025.

2. Fiscal policy: carbon prices and revenues

The World Bank’s State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026 reports direct carbon pricing covering roughly 29% of global GHG emissions. Government revenues from ETSs and carbon taxes in 2025 exceeded US$107 billion.

Reading rule: Survey questions differ. Comparing percentages across firms and years without matching the question wording invites error. OZ-ZONE posts should always name the question and the sample.

3. Three spheres

Scientific community — assessments and observations are not opinion polls.

Fiscal and political machinery — carbon taxes and ETSs create prices, revenues and distributional fights.

General public — threat perception, trust and willingness to pay can move with energy costs, media cycles and party identity.

4. What this post is not claiming

Sources

  1. Pew Research Center, May 2026 (U.S. adults, n=3,524) and August 2025 (25-nation threat perception).
  2. Gallup climate topic updates, April 2026.
  3. Wellcome Global Monitor 2026 (trust in science).
  4. GlobeScan / ERM / Volans, Sustainability at a Crossroads 2026.
  5. World Bank, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026.
  6. Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action, October 2026.

Editorial note: Draft for your review. AI assists research; you remain the publisher.